Weaponizing Space and the Emerging Space Warfare Arms Race

Satellites Jamming, Hijacking, Space SIGINT, Space Kill Vehicles are just the tip of the iceberg in the ongoing weaponization of Space. In previous posts "Who needs nuclear weapons anymore?", "EMP warfare - Electronic Domination in Reverse", and "Is a Space Warfare arms race really comming?" I expressed my opinion on the current and emerging efforts to install and experiment with space weapons, and mostly emphasized on the major problem - the arms race fear itself. What's also worth mentioning is how the original anti-missile defense system Star Wars, transformed from a defensive, to an offensive tool for warfare. SFAM at the CyberpunkReview.com made a good comment :

"Weaponizing space when there really isn't any competitor is a really bad idea. Truly though, the issue that obfuscates things is the US military's change from a threat-based acquisition system (where weapon systems were acquired to combat specific and verifyable threats) to a capability-based acquisition system is the problem. The switch to a capability-based system, being divorced from threats (since the Wall fell, most of the threats did as well), can find justification for new weapon systems even if there isn't a verifyable enemy or even a proven, irreplaceable need in warfare for the technology. Case in point - nobody is challenging the US for air surpremacy, yet we have massively expensive acquisitions underway for the F-22 (which should have been killed in 1991) and the F-35 (Joint Strike Fighter)."

Just came across to a great initiative aiming to act as a faciliator for debating the problem. The SpaceDebate.org aims to :

"expand the debate on the weaponization of space through a collaborative wiki-like tool for structured debate on a topic. You can learn more by taking the quick tour, reading the about page, or browsing our frequently asked questions. You can also jump into the debate by browsing our argument list or one of the positions"

I feel there's a more serious problem we should be discussing for the time being compared to the world's super powers waging wars in space, and it's called Near Earth Object Protection -- there's even a distributed client for tracking the hazard posed by NEOs. For instance, consider the following alternatives for combating the real threat in space - the universe itself :

"There’s been no shortage of ideas how to fend off unfriendly fire from the cosmos: laser beams, space tugboats, gravity tractor, and solar sails for example, as well as using powerful anti-NEO bombs, conventional as well as nuclear. Ailor, also Director of The Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies, told SPACE.com that creative ways to deflect Earth-harming NEOs are far from being exhausted. People have put a lot of concepts on the table over time, Ailor said. Now we’re beginning to try and develop an organized way of looking at those things and finding out which ones are really viable in the short-term, medium-term, and what technologies do we need to protect and develop for the long-term as well."

I've always thought the human race is an experiment of a super intelligent race trying to figure out how long it's gonna take us to self-destroy our kind. In case you're interested in the current situation on space warfare, you can also go through the Space Security 2006 book (111 pages), and previous editions as well. An excerpt from the executive summary :

"A growing number of states, led by China, Russia, the US, and key European states, increasingly emphasize the use of space systems to support national security. Dependence on these systems has led several states to view space assets as critical national security infrastructure. US military space doctrine has also begun to focus on the need for “counterspace operations” to prevent adversaries from accessing space. Building on existing trends, in 2005 actors that included the EU, India, Israel, and Japan placed more emphasis on the national security applications of space. Israel and Japan introduced plans to boost surveillance capabilities from space. India’s Air Force urged the government to set up a Strategic Aerospace Command to better develop military space capabilities."

Don't look for enemies where there aren't still any, but deal with the real space threat. Camouflage, Concealment, and Deception (CC&D) techniques table courtesy of FAS's "Threats to United States Space Capabilities"

Related resources:
Space
SPAWAR

Scientifically Predicting Software Vulnerabilities

I recently came across to a research on "Modeling the Vulnerability Discovery Process" discussing :

"A few models for the vulnerability discovery process have just been published recently. Such models will allow effective resource allocation for patch development and are also needed for evaluating the risk of vulnerability exploitation. Here we examine these models for the vulnerability discovery process. The models are examined both analytically and using actual data on vulnerabilities discovered in three widely-used systems. The applicability of the proposed models and significance of the parameters involved are discussed. The limitations of the proposed models are examined and major research challenges are identified."

A handy summary of the report emphasises on how :

"The Alhazmi-Malaiya Logistic model has already seen success in its predictions:

-- In 2005, it predicted the number of vulnerabilities discovered in Windows XP would grow rapidly. It has indeed grown from 88 in January 2005 to 173 by the latest count, making the vulnerability density of XP comparable to that of earlier version of Windows.

-- The model predicted that very few new vulnerabilities will be found in Red Hat Linux 6.2, and the number has stayed unchanged at 117.

-- It predicted that the number of vulnerabilities of Windows 2000 will eventually range from 294 to 410. At that time of the prediction, the number was 172; it now is 250, and vulnerabilities are still being found."

Remember the U.S DHS's $1.24M bug hunt funding, that came up with a single X11 vulnerability? Money well spent for sure.

HD Moore who's obviously getting efficient, the potential of contests, futures market models, and my speculation on "every day there's a new 0day in the wild" ruin the effect of any model. Assuming no external factors influence the process, and the rest remain static -- while they rarely do -- it's a great initiative, still, more of a scientifically shooting into the dark one, given the great deal of uncertanties, and decentralized model of discovering, reporting, using and abusing vulnerabilities. If historical performance matters and can act as a key indicator for predicting the future, I wonder would MACs lack of vulnerabilities continue to generate hype, it's more of a "lack of incentives to find some" type of issue. Today's vibrant vulnerability research intrigue is indeed capable of ruining any model.

I also came across to a great point, indicating that :

"After the first week of flaws were released, one online miscreant from Russia shot off an e-mail to Moore, complaining that he had outed a vulnerability the Russian had been exploiting, Moore said.
"The black hats don't like that the fact that this is public because they have been using these bugs," Moore said. "By dumping out the bugs on the community, I'm clearing the air and letting the good guys know what others are doing."

From my point of view, the existence and usefulness of Metasploit is precisely the same type of dilema whether citizens should be allowed to carry guns for self-protection or blindly rely on 500 police officers for 500,000 people. Hopefully, with initiatives like the Month of the Browser bug ones, we would inevitably break through the "yet another 0day, where's my patch dude? type of security issues to deal with. At the bottom line that's a single, efficient security researcher who's definitely working on building more awareness on what the corporate trolls are ignoring for the sake of their product portfolio diversification.

It's also interesting to mention on the emerging underground 0bay model for selling 0day vulnerabilities :

"Cyber crooks are not hesitant to make such open declarations of illicit intent because of the anonymity offered by the Internet. Some have had the gall to try and peddle their information on popular online auction sites such as eBay. Last December eBay pulled an ad that was selling vulnerability information about Microsoft's spreadsheet program Excel. That was a bold, if foolhardy, move on the part of the seller, because eBay is hardly blackmarket at all, said Ross Armstrong, senior analyst at technology consultancy firm Info-Tech Research Ltd. in London, Ont."

and its corporate form, on which Sergio Hernando was kind enough to point me to. The VulnDisco Pack Professional :

- contains more than 80 exploits
- each month about 5-10 new exploits are made available in the form of updates
- VulnDisco Pack Professional licenses are not limited to a number of seats

and you can actually see an OpenLDAP 0day exploit in action for yourself.

Metasploit image courtesy of Metasploit's blog.

Related resources and posts:
Vulnerabilities
0day
Was the WMF vulnerability purchased for $4000?!
0bay - how realistic is the market for security vulnerabilities?
Where's my 0day, please?
Delaying Yesterday's "0day" Security Vulnerability
Shaping the Market for Security Vulnerabilities Through Exploit Derivatives
Getting paid for getting hacked

North Korea's Cyber Warfare Unit 121

In a previous post, "Who's Who in Cyber Warfare" I commented on a very informative research on the topic, and pointed out that :

"Technology as the next Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) was inevitable development, what's important to keep in mind is knowing who's up to what, what are the foundations of their military thinking, as well as who's copying attitude from who. Having the capacity to wage offensive and defense cyber warfare is getting more important, still, military thinkers of certain countries find network centric warfare or total renovation of C4I communications as the panacea when dealing with their about to get scraped conventional weaponry systems. Convergence represents countless opportunities for waging Cyber Warfare, offensive one as well, as I doubt there isn't a country working on defensive projects."

Recently, there's been some movement from North Korea's Cyber Warfare unit 121, one that :

"North Korea set up about eight years ago with some 1,000 personnel, said the intelligence official, who declined to be named because it was the agency's policy to remain anonymous. The North's operation, called unit 121, "has hacked into the South Korean and U.S. Defense Department" and has caused much damage in the South, the official said without elaborating."

According to numerous articles on recent "anomalies" at unclassified U.S state department systems, these might actually have to do with the group's actions itself -- quite a momentum to take advantage of, isn't it? Any country's interest in establishing cyber war forces shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. But while North Korea is trying to balance its military powers through asymmetric and cyber warfare approaches given its outdated conventional weaponry thinking, I feel the real beast to worry about is China, who's sneakily hiding behind its currently strategic economic position. As the latest report on "Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2006" points out :

"The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has established information warfare units to develop viruses to attack enemy computer systems and networks, and tactics and measures to protect friendly computer systems and networks."

Taiwan is reasonably taking note on China's historical cyber warfare actions and has recently initiated its first cyber war game simulating attack from China :

"The drill, part of the island's annual major war game Hankuang No. 22, was held Wednesday and Thursday to intercept, block and counter a possible Chinese cyber attack of Taiwan's major computer network to paralyze the island's intranet operation, the Central News Agency quoted an unnamed defence source as saying."

Let's don't forget the use and abuse of island hopping points fueling further tensions in key regions and abusing the momentum itself, physically locating a network device in the future IPv6 network space is of key interest to all parties.

War room courtesy of Northrop Grumman.

Related resources:
Information Warfare
Cyber Warfare